Economic and employment prospects for 2018. Results from the annual Chartered Insurance Institute member economic and Brexit temperature.
Economic outlook for 2018
- This edition of our Member Survey shows that there has been a notable improvement in economic and employment confidence in 2017 among CII members compared to 2016, when the outlook was darkened by the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
- 33% of survey respondents expect economic and business prospects to improve in the 2017 survey. In 2016, only 23% of members expected an improvement in the economy while almost half of members expected the economy to deteriorate.
- Employment prospects are also higher than in 2016. Survey results for 2017 show that 40% of members are more positive about employment prospects than 12 months ago, compared to a figure of 29% in 2016.
- Most members believe Brexit is bad for the economy, with 41% disagreeing with the proposal that Brexit is making Britain a better place to do business for their firm - over three times more than the number of members who think that it is (14%).
- Just over half (50.4%) of respondents do not feel confident that their interests are being well represented in the UK government’s Brexit negotiations with the EU.
- Chartered Insurance Institute members are split down the middle over the desired UK-EU future regulatory relationship with the EU post Brexit. 33% of CII members would prefer to position the sector with light-touch regulation and supervision to try to gain extra global business, while 36% would choose to remain close or ‘equivalent’ to EU legislation.
- Out of respondents who know how their firm’s investment has changed since the EU referendum, nearly three quarters (72%) have not changed their plans.
- The majority of senior workers think it is unlikely that their firms will move operations out of the UK in the event of a ‘no deal’ scenario. However, significantly, 14% of CEOs and nearly a quarter of Senior Directors (22%) believe it is likely or highly likely that their firm will do so.
- A total of 37% of CII members believe that a second Brexit referendum would be highly or somewhat beneficial to their firm, more than double the number of members who would consider it to be highly or somehow damaging (15%).
Press release- CII urges publication of Brexit financial services position paper as insurance profession splits over future UK-EU regulatory relationship