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2017 CII member economic outlook & Brexit survey results

Survey indicates a significant fall in confidence for 2017 among CII members, across all three key indicators measuring economic, business and employment prospects. Following growth in all indices, the yearly change in 2016 is the greatest one-year fall for each index since records began in 2011.

  • This falling confidence reflects general pessimism around future economic prospects - a measure of members' expectations of the current state and direction of the UK macroeconomy. Business prospects, referring to members' expectations of their own company or workplace over the next 12 months, have also fallen, but remain on balance positive.
  • Only 23% of members expect the UK economy to improve over the next year, a significant reduction from the 67% who were confident in the economic outlook in 2015's survey. In 2016, 48% of members expect the UK economy to deteriorate over the next year; in 2015, only 5% thought so.
  • The CII Business Prospects Index is historically less volatile. 45% of members see the prospects of their own business as stable in the coming year, and 36% see an improvement on the way. Yet, this represents a cooling of the confidence levels of 2015, when 59% percent reported improving prospects, and 33% saw stability.
  • Employment prospects are also lower than in 2015. Just under half (48%) of members feel their employment prospects are the same today as a year ago and 29% report their prospects have improved, a lower share than in previous years.
  • The majority of members surveyed voted to remain in the EU (51%), and 52% of members report that the Government's full appreciation of the needs of the insurance sector is a high priority following the vote in favour of Brexit. Yet, 45% are not confident that sector's interests will be well represented in the exit negotiations.

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